My name is Russell McDonald and I'm a mortgage broker, real estate broker and inventor in the SF Bay Area. I've been working in these fields for more than 30 years. This has given me certain insights into finance, credit and technology and I want to share some of that information with you here. I have two mortgage companies and a software company that provides very niche solutions inside the mortgage space. Basically if we ever need a specific tool first we try to just find it in the open marketplace. It's a lot easier to buy a program than create one. If we cannot find what we want then we go about creating it. Sometimes these tools are only used in-house at my other companies and sometimes we make them available to the public.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital, Inc. | NMLS 18766
TRADMOR.COM, Inc. | NMLS 1637088
Mortgage Magic
🚨 New Home Construction Falls as Builders Turn Pessimistic!
Yesterday's builder sentiment report was disappointing. Today's September construction data isn't much better.
🏗️ Housing starts fell 5.2% in September and 7.4% compared with last year.
🏠 Building permits are down 3.0% year over year.
🔑 Home completions are down 14.0% year over year.
Here's the bigger concern: If builders slow construction today, we could face tighter housing inventory when mortgage rates eventually decline.
We need more affordable homes, not fewer!
**QUESTION:** What do you think will happen first?
👍 Mortgage rates fall and buyers return.
🏠 Builders ramp up construction again.
📉 Home prices fall enough to improve affordability.
Tell me what you think!
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #NewHomeConstruction #MortgageRates
5 days ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🚨 Mortgage rates are already above 7.5% and this could be another rough week for bonds.
🔥 ISM inflation pressure
🏦 Multiple Treasury auctions
📝 Fed Minutes Wednesday
🎤 Fed speakers all week
💼 Jobless Claims Thursday
One HUGE thing I’m watching:
Are investors still willing to buy all this U.S. government debt without demanding higher yields?
Because if Treasury yields keep climbing, mortgage rates could climb with them. 👀
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #RealEstate #HomeBuyers
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 1
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🚨 **ONLY 29,000 JOBS ADDED**
September’s jobs report was weak... but look at what happened to the previous numbers:
⬇️ July + August revisions: **-60,000 jobs**
And July was revised from a reported **GAIN to a LOSS.**
This is exactly why you cannot judge the labor market from one headline number. The revisions matter.
Unemployment also moved back up to **4.2%**.
The job market is sending a warning.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#JobsReport #Economy #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #BLS
3 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
The latest Case-Shiller report shows national home prices rose 0.3% in July after seasonal adjustment.
Year-over-year:
📈 National: +1.9%
📈 20-City Index: +2.5%
But look at the bottom chart. 👀
Without seasonal adjustment, monthly price growth has slowed from +0.8% in April to just +0.1% in July.
So this is NOT a booming housing market.
But it’s also NOT the nationwide housing crash some people keep predicting.
Housing is incredibly local right now. Some markets are falling, some are basically flat, and others are still seeing serious competition.
Thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing in California? DM me.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #HomePrices #CaseShiller #RealEstate #Mortgage
3 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🏠 Mortgage Rate Scorecard: September 21–25
The Fed meeting is over. Now watch the bond market. 👀📈
The 10-Year Treasury ended last week right around 5%, and THAT is one of the biggest numbers I’m watching for mortgage rates this week.
Also on deck:
🏦 A parade of Fed speakers
💰 Major Treasury auctions
👷 Weekly jobless claims
🏠 New home sales
🏭 PMI and durable goods
The big question: Can the 10-Year Treasury move decisively back below 5%, or are we headed higher again?
Mortgage rates don’t simply follow the Fed. The bond market has the final say.
Follow me for updates as the numbers come in.
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #RealEstate #Mortgages
1 month ago | [YT] | 1
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
📊 A LOT happened this week, but here’s what really matters.
🏦 The Fed raised rates.
📈 The 10-Year Treasury pushed through 5%.
🏠 Mortgage rates remained above 7%.
💼 Jobless claims fell to 196,000.
🏗️ And we got fresh housing data on construction and pending sales.
The biggest takeaway?
The Fed raised its rate, but that does NOT mean mortgage rates automatically move the same direction.
Mortgage rates are driven much more directly by the bond market, and the bond market has been sending a pretty clear message.
Meanwhile, buyers are still dealing with the same ugly combination: high home prices, high borrowing costs and an affordability problem that isn't going away quickly.
Swipe through for my quick recap of the week. 👉
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #RealEstate #Economy
1 month ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🚨 NEW HOME COMPLETIONS JUST DROPPED 27.1% FROM LAST YEAR.
Take a look at the August construction numbers. 👇
🏗️ Permits: 1.39M
📉 -2.7% MoM
📈 +3.5% YoY
🚧 Housing starts: 1.28M
📉 -2.6% MoM
📉 -1.2% YoY
🔨 Under construction: 1.27M
📈 +0.3% MoM
📉 -3.2% YoY
🏡 Completions: 1.13M
📉 -11.9% MoM
🚨 -27.1% YoY
That is a HUGE decline in the number of newly completed homes hitting the market.
And this is happening while buyers are already battling high mortgage rates and affordability problems.
The one encouraging number is permits, which are still 3.5% higher than last year.
But a permit isn't a house.
America needs more housing supply. We aren't going to fix affordability by building fewer homes.
💬 What are you seeing where you live? More construction or less?
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #NewConstruction #RealEstate #Mortgage #Homebuyers
1 month ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🏠📉 HOME BUILDERS ARE GETTING MORE PESSIMISTIC.
The NAHB Home Builder Sentiment Index dropped to 32 in September, down from 35 last month.
Anything below 50 = builders view conditions as NEGATIVE.
And the details aren't encouraging:
📉 Current sales expectations: 35, down from 39
🔮 Future sales expectations: 37, down from 43
👥 Buyer traffic: 23, unchanged
That future-sales number caught my attention.
Builders aren't only struggling with today's market. They're becoming less optimistic about what's coming next.
Why?
📈 High mortgage rates
🏡 High home prices
💸 Affordability problems
👥 Weak buyer traffic
Builders have been using incentives and mortgage-rate buydowns to move homes, but there is only so much you can do when buyers simply can't make the numbers work.
Housing doesn't need another gimmick. It needs affordability.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
#HousingMarket #MortgageRates #RealEstate #HomeBuying #HomeBuilders
1 month ago | [YT] | 1
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
That beautiful house could be hiding a VERY expensive problem. 🏠💰
Fresh paint and new flooring are easy to see.
What you can’t necessarily see during a showing?
🔍 Roof problems
⚡ Electrical issues
🚿 Plumbing problems
❄️ HVAC issues
🏚️ Structural concerns
💵 Repairs that could cost thousands after closing
A home inspection isn’t about finding the “perfect” house.
It’s about understanding what you’re actually buying.
And in today’s market, buyers may have more negotiating leverage than they’ve had in recent years. Don’t be afraid to ask questions, understand the inspection report, and make an informed decision before you close.
Buying the house is expensive enough. Finding the surprises AFTER you own it is worse.
📲 DM me if you’re thinking about buying a home and want to understand the financing before you start shopping.
Russell McDonald | NMLS 290837 | Broker CA DRE 01150730
Wymac Capital Inc | NMLS 18766 | Broker CA DRE 01121628
Real Estate Broker - CA Dept of Real Estate
1 month ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Mortgage Magic
🚨 The 10-year Treasury just crossed 5%.
It has pulled back to around 4.96%, but now we have a MASSIVE week for mortgage rates.
🏦 Fed decision
🎤 Warsh press conference
🏗️ Housing construction data
🏠 Pending Home Sales
🇬🇧 Bank of England decision
And here’s the crazy part:
The 10-year Treasury was around 3.60% before the Fed started aggressively CUTTING rates in September 2024.
Now?
Around 4.96%. 😳
That’s your reminder that the Fed does NOT directly control mortgage rates.
👀 Watch 5% on the 10-year.
This could be a wild week.
#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #RealEstate #Mortgages
1 month ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
Load more