Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

IS NATO'S RELUCTANCE TO CONFRONT PUTIN MAKING HIM MORE DANGEROUS? A leading US nuclear strategist warns that NATO's failure to deter Russia more forcefully may be encouraging Putin to push even further: https://youtu.be/5d8fzacI0eY

For years, Russia has tested NATO's limits through airspace violations, cyberattacks and other provocations. Yet NATO's response has largely focused on strengthening its defences rather than making Moscow pay a price.

Dr Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council argues this is precisely the problem. NATO keeps looking for better ways to protect itself, while Putin faces too few consequences for his actions.

He compares it to someone being punched in the face every day, only to respond by buying a better helmet rather than considering how to hit back.

Kroenig goes further, arguing that Western reluctance to threaten military escalation before Russia's 2022 invasion may have encouraged Putin to believe he could invade Ukraine without facing direct American intervention.

His warning is that deterrence requires more than defensive preparations. Without credible consequences, NATO risks inviting the very confrontation it is trying to avoid.

22 hours ago | [YT] | 226

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

HAS THE TRUMP-PUTIN DEAL ALREADY COLLAPSED? Less than four weeks in, Trump's diesel deal is already falling apart, with ships bound for America being diverted. But the bigger story is how it worsens Putin's desperate position: https://youtu.be/9FAGpT8jvSs

While Trump struggles to deliver cheaper fuel, Russia is selling its gold reserves to finance a war that is increasingly draining its economy.

Moscow reportedly sold another 18.66 tonnes of gold in the third quarter, making it the world's largest central-bank seller for the second consecutive quarter. While central banks elsewhere are accumulating gold, Russia is drawing down its reserves to cover a growing budget deficit.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes continue disrupting the very refineries that Trump needs to supply American markets.

The irony is extraordinary. Trump needs Russian diesel to bring down American fuel prices. Putin needs customers and revenue to sustain his war. Yet neither appears capable of delivering what the other needs.

And with political opposition mounting in Washington, the deal could face even greater obstacles.

1. Yes — it was doomed from the start
2. Yes — Ukraine has undermined it
3. Not yet — it could still recover
4. No — its importance is exaggerated

1 day ago | [YT] | 299

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

IS THIS THE END OF TRUMP & POLARISATION? Trump suffered the most devastating of midterm defeats. Democrats control Congress, with historic victories, but the biggest significance is beyond Trump's humiliation: https://youtu.be/1e6tRR7D0n4

For a decade, American politics has been dragged further towards the extremes. Every insult, every outrage, every broken norm seemed to push the boundaries of what voters would tolerate. And for years, it appeared there was no breaking point.

But perhaps we've underestimated the silent majority. The millions of Americans who don't spend their lives fighting culture wars, who value decency, compromise and functioning government over endless political hostility.

Having lived in Washington during some of America's most turbulent years, I witnessed firsthand how deeply polarisation has divided the country. And for the first time in years, these results give me genuine hope that America might finally be beginning to correct itself.

So what do you think? Is this the beginning of America's political healing, or simply another swing of the electoral pendulum? Vote below and tell me why.

I've also started a weekly summary of my interviews and analysis, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up here:
pyotrkurzin.substack.com/

3 days ago | [YT] | 258

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

WHAT IS PUTIN REALLY PREPARING FOR? Putin has just ordered every private data centre in Russia to hand 10% of its capacity to the state. Owners have 10 days. The decree calls it urgent: https://youtu.be/9DdWD1O4B6E

On paper, this should be Putin's best autumn of the war. Washington has eased sanctions on Russian diesel, held back new ones and pressed Ukraine to stop hitting refineries. So why does a man supposedly on a winning streak need an emergency decree about computer servers?

Look at what has happened in a matter of days. Ukraine hit the Samara oil hub for the fifth time in a month. Hackers claimed Russia's statistics agency and the app that warns Russians about air raids. And weeks after the Yandex strikes, the state is now putting itself at the front of the queue in every server hall in the country.

Then there is the clause hardly anyone has noticed. With FSB consent, the state may run its systems from data centres abroad. That is not something a government confident in its own defences writes into law.

So what do you think the Kremlin is actually bracing for? Vote below and tell me why in the comments.

I've also started a weekly summary of every interview and analysis on the show, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up here: pyotrkurzin.substack.com/

4 days ago | [YT] | 339

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

CAN EUROPE STOP PUTIN WITHOUT AMERICA? Europe has 500 million people and $23 trillion economy. Russia has 145 million and $2.7 trillion. On paper it isn't close, but General Sir Richard Barrons say this is the problem: https://youtu.be/V0Aq7iz8EPk

Barrons is the four-star general who led Joint Forces Command and co-led Britain's 2025 Strategic Defence Review. In his view, Europe has the people, the money and the technology to deter Russia many times over. What it lacks is time.

Russia has spent five years fighting. It has a mobilised economy, a hardened military and a population in a wartime mindset. Europe has armies that are still transforming, economies that aren't on a war footing, and a public that, in his words, does not feel the peril.

If Washington pulled its intelligence, logistics and command networks overnight, Europe could replace most of them. But there would be a window when an aggressive, mobilised Russia had the drop on a sleepy Europe. Barrons compares the temptation for the Kremlin to Japan's Pearl Harbor calculation: act now or never. His warning is to make sure that thought never takes root.

His message to politicians is equally blunt. Their job is no longer to make small adjustments in the centre ground. It is to lead countries through hard choices, even if it costs them the next election.

So if the US stepped back, what would Europe struggle to replace first? Vote below and tell me why in the comments.

I've also started a weekly summary of every interview and analysis on the show, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up here: pyotrkurzin.substack.com/

5 days ago | [YT] | 379

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

When you’ve an interview at 7…but a Halloween Party at 8.

Legit l had 10 mins to get ready. If you wanna along the fun www.instagram.com/pyotrsfootprints?rpxt=MWhsaDc2N2…

Skip the Carousel

1 2

1 week ago | [YT] | 231

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

WHAT IS UKRAINE’S BEST STRATEGY TO TAKEDOWN PUTIN? Russia reported intercepting 1,214 drones in a single night. But the bigger story is what Ukraine is now prioritising: https://youtu.be/KaQAyg59jvs?si=wRHzK...

Putin is betting that he can outlast everyone: Ukraine’s soldiers, Europe’s patience and America’s willingness to help. But that strategy depends on keeping Russia’s war economy functioning. Ukraine is increasingly going after the infrastructure holding it together.

Refineries turn oil into export earnings and fuel for the military. Data centres power businesses, banking and government services. Chemical plants supply materials needed for body armour and helmets. Each target puts pressure on a different part of the system financing and supplying Putin’s war.

Yandex withdrawing its annual financial forecast after strikes on its data centres shows how deeply that pressure can reach. Meanwhile, shrinking financial reserves leave the Kremlin demanding more from the businesses and households keeping it afloat. Putin can keep prioritising the military — but at an increasing cost to the country he promised to make stronger.

So where should Ukraine concentrate its strikes to do the greatest damage to Putin’s war machine? Vote below and tell me why in the comments.

I’ve also started a weekly summary of every interview and analysis on the show, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up here:
pyotrkurzin.substack.com/

1 week ago | [YT] | 426

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

**HAS PUTIN DESTROYED RUSSIA BEYOND REPAIR?** Sarah Paine argues the damage is already done, and that Russia faces an exile from the world order that could last a generation. Here's why: https://youtu.be/HlDXGOJAzyM?si=VRdUz...

Paine's case is that continental powers like Putin's Russia don't reassess, they double down. Democracies correct mistakes by voting leaders out. Autocrats can't, so Putin will keep doubling down for as long as he holds power. The war was meant to make him more secure. Instead, she argues, it has left him less secure than ever, with reparations demands waiting that Moscow will never want to pay.

The cost is now landing at home. Paine points to limits on cash withdrawals and disrupted mobile banking as signs the Kremlin is struggling to fund the war, and asks how any economy grows when ordinary Russians can't keep hold of their own money. Her deeper point is cultural: Russia keeps blaming outsiders for problems it can only solve at home, from its legal system to its crumbling infrastructure. Will it take a new generation asking their parents what they were thinking before anything changes?

Can Russia ever recover from Putin's war, and what would it take? Vote below and tell me why in the comments.

I've also started a weekly summary of every interview and analysis on the show, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up here: pyotrskurzin.substack.com/

1 week ago | [YT] | 405

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

DID PUTIN JUST EXPOSE HIS OWN LIE? He claims his was never about NATO, yet now demands NATO roll back to its 1997 borders exposing a much bigger story. Here’s why: https://youtu.be/TrS11FgkV78

For years, Putin called NATO expansion an existential threat. Then Finland joined, dramatically extending Russia’s border with the alliance. His response never matched the rhetoric. Now he wants the West to negotiate over the security of countries far beyond Ukraine. Is the real objective territory—or the power to decide which neighbours are allowed to defend themselves?

There’s another revealing twist: Moscow wants Europe involved in negotiations. After dismissing European leaders as irrelevant, has their support for Ukraine made them impossible to bypass? And by demanding something NATO will never accept, is Putin setting up a “compromise” that still gives him more than his army could win?

What is Putin really trying to achieve? Vote below and tell me why in the comments.

I’ve also started a weekly summary of every interview and analysis on the show, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up here: pyotrskurzin.substack.com/

1 week ago | [YT] | 286

Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

DO YOU ENJOY THE GLOBAL GAMBIT? Unfortunately, the audio show is being suppressed, so if you could give it a quick rating: open.spotify.com/show/4dtl0QWtQzFVTL4vb72nMj?si=24… l would really appreciate it. Or on Apple if you use that: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-global-gambit/id….

Technical issues with the podcast feeds meant some listeners weren’t receiving new episodes, while duplicate listings split the audience. That’s now been sorted, and I’m working to rebuild the show’s reach.

If you enjoy the interviews and analysis, I’d really appreciate you following the podcast and leaving a rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. A short review on Apple would also mean a lot.

It’s a free way to help others discover the show—and help us recover some ground after a frustrating setback. Thank you.

Skip the Carousel

1 2

1 week ago | [YT] | 195