The current game plan is to remain constructive on the market while staying disciplined in the short term.
After nine consecutive weeks of gains, the recent SPY pullback appears healthy and occurred near the key 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level, suggesting consolidation is normal. The most important level to monitor is SPY 695; holding above it keeps the bullish trend intact, while a break below could lead to a deeper pullback toward lower support levels.
Given that June is historically a volatile month, investors should manage expectations and remain patient. The recent weakness has also created more attractive opportunities in high-quality SaaS companies such as Microsoft, Salesforce, and ServiceNow, which continue to benefit from AI adoption, cloud migration, and recurring revenue models.
Overall, the strategy is to stay invested, focus on quality businesses, and use market weakness as an opportunity to selectively accumulate long-term winners.
As of the last week of May, the market has recorded 9 consecutive weeks of gains, a pattern last seen in November 2024. Back then, the market experienced a healthy pullback before resuming its uptrend. Currently, the RSI is around 74, indicating overbought conditions.
As a result, I expect a short-term correction or pullback before the broader rally continues. While the near-term outlook appears stretched, the medium- and long-term trend remains bullish.
Last Friday, the software sector rallied strongly while many other sectors closed in the red. This suggests a rotation of capital into software stocks, which have largely lagged the market this year. Although some profit-taking may occur in the short term, any pullback could provide an opportunity for the sector to continue higher as institutional money rotates into software-related names.
For investors holding VOO or SPY, patience may be rewarded by waiting for pullbacks before adding positions. Stock pickers can continue looking for quality companies trading below their intrinsic value. Traders should consider taking profits more aggressively, as the market appears short-term bearish to neutral but medium- and long-term bullish.
Attention now turns to the FOMC meeting on June 16–17, 2026, where investors will closely watch the policy direction under new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Scenario 1: The market continues rallying into the FOMC meeting. If investors dislike the new Fed's policies, a pullback could follow before the bull trend resumes.
Scenario 2: The market pulls back first due to overbought conditions. If the FOMC delivers market-friendly policies, another strong rally could begin.
Conclusion: After 9 consecutive green weeks and an RSI above 70, a short-term pullback would not be surprising. Such a correction would likely be healthy and create better entry opportunities. Despite near-term volatility, the medium- and long-term outlook remains bullish.
Current View: • Short Term: Pullback Expected • Medium Term: Bullish • Long Term: Bullish • Software Sector: Bullish After Pullback
Servicenow(NOW) rallied approx 14% in one day! And worth $253 to $300 per share on valuation. Is this the end of AI disruption on SAAS and the end of bottom as well??
Stay tuned for an upcoming full deep dive on Servicenow(NOW) and how i saw it as an opportunity and bought it only at $97!
Firstly, following the appointment and swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, the market reacted positively, with the market gaining approximately 0.39%. However, historical data suggests that while markets may experience weaker or negative returns within the first 1–3 months after a new Federal Reserve leadership transition, returns over the 6–12 month period have generally remained positive.
Secondly, looking at the SPY, the current RSI stands at 68.77, approaching the traditional overbought level of 70. Personally, I prefer using RSI 80 as a stronger confirmation of extreme momentum. Nonetheless, current technical indicators suggest that the market may experience short-term pullbacks or consolidation due to stretched momentum levels.
Thirdly, sector rotation remains important to monitor. Recent market strength has largely been driven by semiconductor companies, while several major technology stocks experienced weakness over the previous week. This indicates that market leadership is becoming increasingly concentrated within the semiconductor sector.
Fourthly, periods of volatility or pullbacks may provide opportunities to accumulate fundamentally strong companies for position trading or long-term investing. Examples include MSFT, NOW, META, and CRM, which continue to maintain strong business fundamentals and long-term growth potential.
Lastly, if a broader market pullback occurs, semiconductor stocks are likely to experience the sharpest correction initially due to their strong rally and significant role in driving recent market gains.
Overall, the outlook remains short-term bearish or cautious, while maintaining a medium- to long-term bullish perspective.
What are your thoughts on the current market situation? Do you believe the pullback will continue, or is this simply another buying opportunity before the next rally? Let us know in the comments below, and don’t forget to like, subscribe, and follow for more weekly market insights and investing updates.
Weekly Market Update(dated 18 May to 22 May 2026):
Hello everybody, welcome back to our channel. Here, we do weekly market updates and discuss the overall market outlook.
Firstly, the SPY recently hit an all-time high of 739, so congratulations to all long-term investors in ETFs such as VOO and QQQ. However, as we dive deeper into the charts, we can see that on the hourly timeframe, SPY experienced a pullback of approximately 1.3% within a single day as of last Friday.
Looking at the all-time chart, the RSI is currently around 73, which indicates overbought conditions. Historically, whenever RSI reaches these levels, the market tends to experience short-term pullbacks before continuing higher.
On the weekly chart, SPY has closed green for 7 consecutive weeks, while on the daily chart, we have seen strong bullish momentum since the end of March.
Looking at the moving averages, the 50-day moving average has recently crossed above the 150-day moving average, signalling bullish momentum in both the medium and long term. However, in the short term, bearish pressure and profit-taking may lead to temporary pullbacks.
On the hourly chart, we can identify key support zones around 735, 724, and 712, which could act as strong support levels before the market potentially resumes its rally.
Secondly, as of May 15, Jerome Powell has stepped down and was replaced by Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair. Historically, leadership changes within the Federal Reserve tend to increase market volatility, as investors react to potential policy changes and uncertainty surrounding future interest rate decisions.
Thirdly, looking at historical data from previous Federal Reserve transitions, volatility typically increases during the first 10 to 15 days after the new chair takes over. Following that, markets usually enter a choppy consolidation phase lasting between 1 to 3 months. However, when focusing on longer-term performance over 6 to 12 months, markets have generally remained bullish overall.
Lastly, from a sector perspective, semiconductors appear significantly overstretched after their recent parabolic rallies. Stocks such as Intel, NVIDIA, and Micron have experienced very strong upward momentum recently, making the semiconductor sector one of the first areas likely to experience pullbacks if SPY corrects in the short term.
Hence, traders may consider opening hedge positions on SPY to manage short-term downside risks and increased market volatility. For long-term investors, potential pullbacks could present opportunities to accumulate fundamentally strong and high-quality companies at better valuations.
Overall, while short-term corrections may occur, the broader medium- to long-term outlook for the market remains constructive, especially for sectors and companies with strong fundamentals, sustainable growth, and long-term relevance within themes such as AI, infrastructure, energy, and technology.
CompoundCapital
Is the bull market still alive?
Last week's bullish pin bar says YES... for now.
But all eyes are on:
đź“Ť SPY 723
đź“Ť SPY 695
If buyers defend these levels, the bull run may continue.
If they break, expect more downside volatility.
What are you buying on the next pullback? 👇
#stocks #investing #spy #sp500 #trading #marketanalysis #stockmarket #wealthbuilding #finance #money
3 months ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
CompoundCapital
8 to 12 June weekly market update
Game plan:
The current game plan is to remain constructive on the market while staying disciplined in the short term.
After nine consecutive weeks of gains, the recent SPY pullback appears healthy and occurred near the key 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level, suggesting consolidation is normal. The most important level to monitor is SPY 695; holding above it keeps the bullish trend intact, while a break below could lead to a deeper pullback toward lower support levels.
Given that June is historically a volatile month, investors should manage expectations and remain patient. The recent weakness has also created more attractive opportunities in high-quality SaaS companies such as Microsoft, Salesforce, and ServiceNow, which continue to benefit from AI adoption, cloud migration, and recurring revenue models.
Overall, the strategy is to stay invested, focus on quality businesses, and use market weakness as an opportunity to selectively accumulate long-term winners.
3 months ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
CompoundCapital
Market Outlook 1 to 5 June 2026
As of the last week of May, the market has recorded 9 consecutive weeks of gains, a pattern last seen in November 2024. Back then, the market experienced a healthy pullback before resuming its uptrend. Currently, the RSI is around 74, indicating overbought conditions.
As a result, I expect a short-term correction or pullback before the broader rally continues. While the near-term outlook appears stretched, the medium- and long-term trend remains bullish.
Last Friday, the software sector rallied strongly while many other sectors closed in the red. This suggests a rotation of capital into software stocks, which have largely lagged the market this year. Although some profit-taking may occur in the short term, any pullback could provide an opportunity for the sector to continue higher as institutional money rotates into software-related names.
For investors holding VOO or SPY, patience may be rewarded by waiting for pullbacks before adding positions. Stock pickers can continue looking for quality companies trading below their intrinsic value. Traders should consider taking profits more aggressively, as the market appears short-term bearish to neutral but medium- and long-term bullish.
Attention now turns to the FOMC meeting on June 16–17, 2026, where investors will closely watch the policy direction under new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Scenario 1: The market continues rallying into the FOMC meeting. If investors dislike the new Fed's policies, a pullback could follow before the bull trend resumes.
Scenario 2: The market pulls back first due to overbought conditions. If the FOMC delivers market-friendly policies, another strong rally could begin.
Conclusion: After 9 consecutive green weeks and an RSI above 70, a short-term pullback would not be surprising. Such a correction would likely be healthy and create better entry opportunities. Despite near-term volatility, the medium- and long-term outlook remains bullish.
Current View:
• Short Term: Pullback Expected
• Medium Term: Bullish
• Long Term: Bullish
• Software Sector: Bullish After Pullback
4 months ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
CompoundCapital
Servicenow(NOW) rallied approx 14% in one day! And worth $253 to $300 per share on valuation. Is this the end of AI disruption on SAAS and the end of bottom as well??
Stay tuned for an upcoming full deep dive on Servicenow(NOW) and how i saw it as an opportunity and bought it only at $97!
Like and Subscribe for more upcoming contents! :)
4 months ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
CompoundCapital
Firstly, following the appointment and swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, the market reacted positively, with the market gaining approximately 0.39%. However, historical data suggests that while markets may experience weaker or negative returns within the first 1–3 months after a new Federal Reserve leadership transition, returns over the 6–12 month period have generally remained positive.
Secondly, looking at the SPY, the current RSI stands at 68.77, approaching the traditional overbought level of 70. Personally, I prefer using RSI 80 as a stronger confirmation of extreme momentum. Nonetheless, current technical indicators suggest that the market may experience short-term pullbacks or consolidation due to stretched momentum levels.
Thirdly, sector rotation remains important to monitor. Recent market strength has largely been driven by semiconductor companies, while several major technology stocks experienced weakness over the previous week. This indicates that market leadership is becoming increasingly concentrated within the semiconductor sector.
Fourthly, periods of volatility or pullbacks may provide opportunities to accumulate fundamentally strong companies for position trading or long-term investing. Examples include MSFT, NOW, META, and CRM, which continue to maintain strong business fundamentals and long-term growth potential.
Lastly, if a broader market pullback occurs, semiconductor stocks are likely to experience the sharpest correction initially due to their strong rally and significant role in driving recent market gains.
Overall, the outlook remains short-term bearish or cautious, while maintaining a medium- to long-term bullish perspective.
What are your thoughts on the current market situation? Do you believe the pullback will continue, or is this simply another buying opportunity before the next rally? Let us know in the comments below, and don’t forget to like, subscribe, and follow for more weekly market insights and investing updates.
4 months ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
CompoundCapital
The Market After Powell, Here’s What History Shows.
Powell’s era may be ending soon.
But here’s what most investors don’t realize:
Every Fed Chair changed market direction differently.
The next one could decide:
AI bubble continuation
Interest rate direction
Stock market liquidity
Future bull or bear market
Smart investors watch the Fed before the headlines do.
“Follow to stay ahead of the market.”
4 months ago | [YT] | 0
View 0 replies
CompoundCapital
Weekly Market Update(dated 18 May to 22 May 2026):
Hello everybody, welcome back to our channel. Here, we do weekly market updates and discuss the overall market outlook.
Firstly, the SPY recently hit an all-time high of 739, so congratulations to all long-term investors in ETFs such as VOO and QQQ. However, as we dive deeper into the charts, we can see that on the hourly timeframe, SPY experienced a pullback of approximately 1.3% within a single day as of last Friday.
Looking at the all-time chart, the RSI is currently around 73, which indicates overbought conditions. Historically, whenever RSI reaches these levels, the market tends to experience short-term pullbacks before continuing higher.
On the weekly chart, SPY has closed green for 7 consecutive weeks, while on the daily chart, we have seen strong bullish momentum since the end of March.
Looking at the moving averages, the 50-day moving average has recently crossed above the 150-day moving average, signalling bullish momentum in both the medium and long term. However, in the short term, bearish pressure and profit-taking may lead to temporary pullbacks.
On the hourly chart, we can identify key support zones around 735, 724, and 712, which could act as strong support levels before the market potentially resumes its rally.
Secondly, as of May 15, Jerome Powell has stepped down and was replaced by Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair. Historically, leadership changes within the Federal Reserve tend to increase market volatility, as investors react to potential policy changes and uncertainty surrounding future interest rate decisions.
Thirdly, looking at historical data from previous Federal Reserve transitions, volatility typically increases during the first 10 to 15 days after the new chair takes over. Following that, markets usually enter a choppy consolidation phase lasting between 1 to 3 months. However, when focusing on longer-term performance over 6 to 12 months, markets have generally remained bullish overall.
Lastly, from a sector perspective, semiconductors appear significantly overstretched after their recent parabolic rallies. Stocks such as Intel, NVIDIA, and Micron have experienced very strong upward momentum recently, making the semiconductor sector one of the first areas likely to experience pullbacks if SPY corrects in the short term.
Hence, traders may consider opening hedge positions on SPY to manage short-term downside risks and increased market volatility. For long-term investors, potential pullbacks could present opportunities to accumulate fundamentally strong and high-quality companies at better valuations.
Overall, while short-term corrections may occur, the broader medium- to long-term outlook for the market remains constructive, especially for sectors and companies with strong fundamentals, sustainable growth, and long-term relevance within themes such as AI, infrastructure, energy, and technology.
4 months ago | [YT] | 1
View 0 replies