Raoul Pal The Journey Man

The Future Is Compression

We are all swamped by data. Every chart, every series, every macro data point on earth is a click away now, and most of it is free... which sounds like a gift until you actually try to use it. The data matters. But raw information is everywhere, and knowing what it means is everything.

Compression is the ultimate form of intelligence. It's taken me thirty-five years in macro to learn that properly. At Global Macro Investor, we built a database of four thousand charts over the years, on every economy and every clever lead indicator we could find, and its great lesson was that only around a hundred of them actually matter.

This week, we put those hundred in your hands...

Yours to use, not just to read

Macro research has always been something you're shown. Someone puts up a chart, tells you what it means, and you take their word for it.

Now, the most important charts in macro are live in real time on Real Vision and yours to work with. Change the dates, shift the leads and lags, move the axes around.

Want to see whether liquidity really leads the business cycle by six months? Check it yourself, against thirty-five years of our work... you don't have to take my word for anything anymore. You can even develop your opposing views based on the data. It's all in your hands...

These are the same charts I use to run my own money. Nobody in this business hands over the actual tools, because the tools are the moat. We've decided the opposite: the moat is what we do with them, together.

You will never be lost in it.

Getting from four thousand charts to around a hundred or so is only the first layer of compression. Each area then carries its own: a plain-English read of what actually matters right now in liquidity, the cycle, inflation and rates, and why.

And at the very top of the page sits the only question that really counts for an investor: what is the environment? Risk-on or risk-off, where we are in the cycle, and where I stand on equities, bonds, the dollar, Bitcoin, oil and gold. Fifteen seconds and you know. Then you choose how deep to go.

Every week I'll write a note, by hand, on the platform and on Real Vision, making sense of it all as it moves, whether that's liquidity, the business cycle or the bigger picture. It scores the previous week's note too, so when I get something wrong, you'll hear it from me first.

The higher you climb, the more intelligence it compresses

Alpha members get all of the above.

Pro members get the positions wrapped in as well... the actual RV Pro book, marked and repriced every single day, with deep analysis around it. Not just what we think, but what we're doing about it, and why, with automated analysis for asset allocation decisions and understanding.

That's the design of the whole thing. Same framework, same charts, same language at every tier. What grows as you climb is the compression, the depth, and frankly, how much of my own neck is on the line in front of you.

This is just the start.

Nothing like this exists anywhere in our business. Live institutional-grade macro, compressed into what actually matters, in your hands and deepening at every tier... it's what I've wanted to build for Alpha and Pro members for years, and the technology has finally caught up with the ambition.

And it's only the first release. I've got many more component parts to roll out over the months ahead, each one adding another layer to the platform, and I'll be taking your feedback the whole way to iterate and improve it. You'll shape this as much as I will.

Get your hands dirty, poke holes in it, tell me what you want next... I can't wait to show you.

Available on realvision.com

1 month ago | [YT] | 41

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

Thanks for joining me for Drinks yesterday. I always enjoy these.

You might have heard there that we're running our biggest sale ever right now on Real Vision.

Go to realvision.com/pricing to take advantage of a truly generational setup.

And if you're not sure which membership is the right one for you, I've got you covered with this video.

2 months ago | [YT] | 12

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

Hi, everyone. I'm hosting a special Drinks with Raoul AMA at 5pm Eastern Time today (10pm in London, 7am to go with your morning coffee in Sydney).

I'm picking 10 member questions to answer live. Every question I select? $1k USDC to that member.

Submit via the link. Comments don't count.

app.realvision.com/share/note/drinks-with-raoul-sp…

Good luck and see you at 5!

3 months ago | [YT] | 50

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

Enjoyed my conversation with David Mattin last week? It's a taster of what you get if you subscribe to the Exponentialist - David's and my tech research service.

The world isn’t just changing. It’s accelerating. AI. Robotics. Quantum. Blockchain. Energy. An economic tidal wave is coming for global markets.



By 2030, the game will be over. Are you ready to profit in the Exponential Age?



We have an offer that ends TODAY.

Get 15% OFF a 6-month membership or 25% OFF 12 months.

realvision.com/exponentialist

6 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 66

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

Ok, I've been one shotted by Claude. Firstly the UX is lovely, it's great at design and writing and also Claude Cowork turned a not very good deck into a decent website from one prompt in 3 mins on my first every attempt (with less than zero technical skills). Holy moly.

7 months ago | [YT] | 210

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

ChatGPT 5.2 is so good in terms of reasoning, intelligence,context, conversational memory etc but it is godawful at creative writing (bullet points for everything!) and for nice UX (good charts, images, creative design).

We need something that creates intelligence with UX flair.

7 months ago | [YT] | 72

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

The big bazooka might be coming...

10 months ago | [YT] | 413

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

So now the US Gov has reopened, what's next?

Expect a few days for TGA spending to begin to significantly add to liquidity and should persist for several months.

Obviously, QT ends in Dec and the balancesheet will crawl higher.

We should see the dollar begin to weaken again.

The next key step is to avoid a Year End funding squeeze. Expect several "temporary" measures to add liquidity. Term Funding and SRF operations are most likely.

That will eventually morph into the desperately needed changes to the SLR to allow banks to absorb more issuance and re-lever their balance sheets. This is a big liquidity bazooka. Expect in Q1.

SLR should lower rates as banks buy more bonds.

Also expect CLARITY Act for crypto to begin to get finalised.

There will also be stimulus payments and the Big Beautiful Bill fiscal goosing.

China will contonue balance sheet expansion. Europe will add fiscal stimulus or extra spending.

The debts must be rolled and the Gov wants to super heat the economy into the Mid-Terms.

This is the Liquidity Flood.... the spice must flow.

10 months ago | [YT] | 742

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

So it appears crypto markets liquidated anyone with greed and now want to grind down anyone with hope 🤣😭

Yup, it's been frustrating and this grind is longer than expected but it is what it is and this too shall pass and the spice (liquidity) must flow.

Don't Fuck This Up.

10 months ago | [YT] | 1,313

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

On Energy and AI:

We are all aware of the urgent need for massive new energy infrastructure for data centres and other general needs. The grid is old and the supply is constrained.

Investor capital is pouring into nuclear soluations, new gas plants and other opportunities and the bottleneck will be better solved in 5 years+

However, the need for the extra energy is URGENT and IMMEDIATE...

The AI race is the most important technology race that will ever occur. It is not just about hyperscalers and their profits, but about the game of nations.

There is only one energy solution that can hyperscale in 12 to 24 months and that is solar. China has shown this by adding more than the total amount of energy created by Solar elsewhere globally, in one year. The rise of solar in China is one of the great exponentials. China knows the game here. Everyone else has to play catch up.

The Kardashev Scale is the correct way to think about this. The sun is 99.9% of the mass of the solar system and we are harnessing <1% of its energy that hits earth.

1 sq mile on the earths surface receives 2.5 gigawatts of solar energy. Yes, solar panel efficiency is low and usable daylight hours is restricted but the amount of solar panels required in relative terms of the surface size is small.

Solar is not yet perfect as the supply of energy is intermittant (nights/bad weather etc) and efficiency is low (but rising as tech improves) but costs are collapsing exponentially, even taking into account panel replacements and no subsidies (it doesnt require them).

Some of the issues are offset by batteries which currently solve for 4 hours of extra storage. Tesla's Megapacks are growing at 50% to 70% per year and other players are also scaling fast. Battery tech will only imporve from here too.

Just the use of solar + batteries reduces demand on the exisiting grid by upto 65% (you only need to use the grid load for perdiods of time). This helps massively in this rapid scaling to avoid an overload of the grid. Solar + batteries also allows for localised, decentralised energy grids for specifc use - factories, datacenters, etc.

The load on the grid will be reduced after 2 years or so when new localised gas plants are built to balance the loads. Gas plants are the cheapest, cleanest and fastest of the fossil fuel solutions but it takes longer to scale than solar and requires a lot of gas pipelines.

Weirdly, solar seems to be politicised, but its going to become an economic imperative as nothing else can solve the needs of the massive data centers in the next 1 to 2 years, and no one can afford to be leftr behind in the race to AGI and beyond.

AI is the most important technology humanity will ever develop as it replaces us as the apex intelligence on earth and is vastly more energy efficient than humans at compute/intellgence output.

The core metric for the universe itself is:

Intelligence per unit of energy

For this to scale exponentially, AI will replace humans as the primary source of intelligence and the sun's energy is most of the energy on earth. Even oil is just biologically-stored sun energy with finite supply.

In terms of investability, there are two opportunities that stand out as long-term plays:

The Solar ETF TAN is down 84% from its high, has formed a perfect base on both the log chart and the regular chart.

TSLA is the other obvious play as it dominates the large battery sector and batteries account for 10% of total revenues and are growing rapidly and will continue to do so. The Tesla chart is one of the best in the Exponential Age.

Anyway, I know because solar is politicised that people will rush to fight in the comments but don't bother unless you can solve the urgent energy needs for AI in the next 1 to 2 years by any other method.... you can't.

And yes, dear troll, we all understand that there are lithium, copper and other needs, and yes, there will be an investible bull market in those too (amongst other major commodities) as the business cycle and the Capex cycle heats up... and yes, there will be supply issues if you havent carefully planned/hedged.

But you need to warm up to solar... its going to get hot.

(Time horizon is now and for the next 5 years+).

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11 months ago | [YT] | 550