Weather On da Fly

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Your (Weather On da Fly) Team Members:
Chief Meteorologist: Roger (Jan. 2023 until present)
Meteorologist: Jenny (Apr. 2024 until present)
Meteorologist: Steffan (Jan. 2026 until present)


Weather On da Fly

πŸ₯Ά Bundle up, Gulf Coast! A taste of winter is sweeping into the basin! 🌬️🌊

If you’re stepping outside today, you’re going to feel a major shift in the air. A deep, amplified dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. is acting like an atmospheric slide, pushing a strong cold front all the way across the Gulf!

Here is what you need to know about this weekend’s chill:

πŸ“‰ The Temperature Drop: Highs across the Southeast and Gulf Coast are running 5 to 15 degrees below normal through Saturday. Tonight, overnight lows are expected to dip into the 30s for inland areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. If you live north of I-10, watch out for frost and a possible light freeze!

❄️ Where’s the Cold Coming From? While weather watchers are keeping a close eye on an early-season disruption to the polar vortex up north, this specific surge is a crisp Canadian air massβ€”not a full-blown mid-winter Arctic blast, though it will definitely feel brisk!

β›΅ Rough Waters Ahead: Behind the front, gusty north winds up to 30 knots are kicking up choppy seas across the northern Gulf and down toward the southwestern Gulf. Boaters and anglers should use caution and check marine advisories before heading out.

β˜€οΈ Looking Ahead: High pressure will bring plenty of sunshine and crisp, clear skies for the weekend. The chill won't stick around too longβ€”temperatures will start warming back up early next week before our next front arrives around Monday!

🌱 Quick Reminder: Don't forget to bring in sensitive patio plants, check on outdoor pets, and grab that heavy jacket before heading out tonight!

❓How cold is it getting in your neck of the woods? Drop your city and weekend plans in the comments! πŸ‘‡πŸ”₯β˜•

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1 hour ago | [YT] | 4

Weather On da Fly

🌧️ DAY 4 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK: EYES ON SOUTHEAST TEXAS & SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA 🌧️

Hey everyone, Weather On Da Fly here with your latest long-range rainfall update!

If you are along the northwest Gulf Coast, keep an umbrella handy and stay weather aware as we head toward the end of the weekend. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has officially placed the region under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 2 for Day 4) for excessive rainfall.

πŸ”· When: Sunday, Nov. 15 through Monday morning, Nov. 16
πŸ“ Where: Southeast Texas & Southwest Louisiana
⚠️ Risk Level: Marginal Risk (5% to 14% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles of a point)

What You Need to Know:
A shifting weather pattern is setting the stage for some localized heavy downpours on Sunday. While a Marginal Risk means any flooding should remain isolated, heavy rain falling quickly can still overwhelm storm drains, low-lying roads, and poor drainage areas.
Because we are still four days out, the exact track and intensity of the heaviest rain bands can still shift. Be sure to stick with Weather On Da Fly right here on Facebook as we get closer to Sunday for updated rainfall totals and radar tracking!

Remember: Turn Around, Don't Drown! Never drive through flooded roadways. πŸš—πŸ’¦

Drop your city in the comments below and let us know if you're ready for some rain! πŸ‘‡

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4 hours ago | [YT] | 4

Weather On da Fly

⚠️The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #705 for Eastern Pennsylvania, Central New Jersey, Northern Delaware, and adjacent coastal waters until 7:00 PM EST. The alert warns of potential tornadoes, hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts reaching 70 mph.

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15 hours ago | [YT] | 7

Weather On da Fly

🚨 SEVERE WEATHER ALERT: WATCH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC 🚨

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Mesoscale Discussion #2451, highlighting an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, central New Jersey, northern Delaware, and northeastern Maryland through this afternoon.

⚠️ WHAT'S HAPPENING? A strengthening area of low pressure moving through the region is interacting with a warm front draped across New Jersey. Warmer, more humid air is beginning to move northward, creating an environment supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development.

🌩️ THREATS EXPECTED β€’ Isolated supercell thunderstorms β€’ Large hail β€’ Damaging wind gusts β€’ A few brief tornadoes

Forecasters expect storms to begin developing around midday and increase in coverage through the afternoon as they track northeastward. Atmospheric conditions, including strong wind shear and unusually cold air aloft, will support rotating thunderstorms capable of becoming severe rather quickly.

πŸŒͺ️ TORNADO POTENTIAL While widespread tornadoes are not expected, the environment appears supportive of a few brief tornadoes, especially near the warm front where low\-level winds are strongest.

πŸ“ AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN β€’ Southeastern Pennsylvania β€’ Central New Jersey β€’ Northern Delaware β€’ Northeastern Maryland

⏰ TIMING: The greatest severe weather threat is expected from late morning through the afternoon hours.

The SPC currently places the probability of watch issuance at 60%, meaning conditions are being monitored closely and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch may be needed if storm development continues as forecast.

If you live in the highlighted region, make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and be prepared to move indoors quickly if a warning is issued.

We'll continue monitoring this developing severe weather situation and provide updates as new information becomes available.

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17 hours ago | [YT] | 8

Weather On da Fly

🌩️ **Weather On Da Fly: Marginal Severe Weather Risk Across The Mid-Atlantic Today**

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the **coastal Mid-Atlantic under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today**, with the greatest concern centered across portions of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and nearby coastal areas.

A developing storm system moving out of the Ohio Valley will interact with a weak surface low and a northward-moving warm front this afternoon, creating an environment capable of supporting a few stronger thunderstorms.

⚠️ **Main Threats Include:** 🧊 Large Hail πŸ’¨ Damaging Wind Gusts πŸŒͺ️ An Isolated Tornado

While widespread severe weather is not expected, forecasters are closely monitoring the potential for individual storms to become organized as they develop along and near the warm front during the afternoon hours.

One factor working in favor of stronger storms will be unusually cold air aloft, which can enhance thunderstorm intensity and increase the potential for hail production. Stronger cells that form across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey could quickly become capable of producing severe hail and localized wind damage before moving offshore later in the day.

πŸŒͺ️ **Tornado Potential** Although tornado chances remain low overall, forecasters note that any thunderstorm that can interact with the warm front could briefly acquire rotation. If a persistent supercell develops, a localized tornado threat may emerge across portions of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey during the peak heating hours this afternoon.

πŸ“ Areas farther north toward Long Island and southern New England are expected to remain largely outside of the greater severe weather threat due to the position of the warm front.

βœ… Residents across the Mid-Atlantic should remain weather aware throughout the afternoon and evening, especially if outdoor plans are on the schedule. Even in a Marginal Risk setup, isolated severe storms can produce hazardous conditions with little warning.

We'll continue to monitor developments and provide updates if storms begin to strengthen or additional watches become necessary.

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19 hours ago | [YT] | 16

Weather On da Fly

🌩️ WEATHER ON DA FLY: SPC DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 🌩️

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting a few areas to watch for isolated severe thunderstorms from this weekend into the middle of next week as a storm system moves from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains and eventually across the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

While widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out.

πŸ”· DAY-BY-DAY BREAKDOWN

🟒 Sunday A developing storm system will move into the Southern Plains. Increasing Gulf moisture will surge northward into Texas and Oklahoma, allowing instability to build during the afternoon and evening hours.

Areas of Central and North Texas currently appear to have the best opportunity for a few isolated severe thunderstorms. The primary uncertainty remains how far north higher instability can develop.

🟒 Monday The storm system begins shifting eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread, but confidence in organized severe weather remains low at this time.

🟒 Tuesday Thunderstorms are expected to continue progressing east across portions of the Gulf Coast states and Southeast. Some storms could become strong, but the overall severe threat currently appears isolated and conditional on how much instability develops ahead of the approaching trough.

🟑 Wednesday This is the day that currently stands out the most.

As the upper-level trough moves across the Southeast, the Florida Peninsula could see the greatest chance for isolated severe thunderstorms. A warmer and more unstable air mass may be in place ahead of the system, creating a more favorable environment for a few stronger storms.

πŸ” WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

βœ… Northward moisture return from the Gulf βœ… How much instability develops across Texas Sunday βœ… Storm evolution as the system enters the Gulf Coast states βœ… Potential for a stronger severe weather threat across Florida by Wednesday

It's still several days away, and forecast details will continue to change. However, the overall pattern supports at least a low-end severe weather risk somewhere from Texas to Florida over the coming week.

Stay tuned as Weather On Da Fly continues to monitor the latest forecast trends and model guidance.

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1 day ago | [YT] | 13

Weather On da Fly

🚨🌩️ WEATHER ON DA FLY: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF INDIANA & KENTUCKY 🌩️🚨

The Storm Prediction Center has issued **Severe Thunderstorm Watch #704** effective until **11:00 PM EST** for portions of **Central and Southern Indiana** and **Western Kentucky**.

⚠️ THREATS INCLUDE:
πŸ’¨ Damaging wind gusts up to **70 mph**
🧊 Large hail up to **1.5 inches in diameter**
πŸŒͺ️ A tornado or two cannot be ruled out

Storms are expected to increase in both coverage and intensity this evening as a strong cold front pushes eastward through the region. Atmospheric conditions will support the development of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. While the tornado threat remains relatively low, forecasters indicate that a brief tornado remains possible with the strongest storms.

πŸ“ Areas included in the watch extend from near the Indianapolis area southward into western Kentucky, including communities near Owensboro and surrounding locations.

⏰ Timing:
The greatest severe weather threat appears to be through the evening hours as thunderstorms organize along and ahead of the advancing cold front.

βœ… WHAT YOU SHOULD DO:
β€’ Stay weather aware this evening
β€’ Have multiple ways to receive warnings
β€’ Secure loose outdoor objects
β€’ Move vehicles indoors if possible to avoid hail damage
β€’ Be prepared to take shelter quickly should warnings be issued

Remember, a **Severe Thunderstorm Watch** means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop. It does NOT mean severe weather is occurring everywhere within the watch area, but residents should remain alert for rapidly changing conditions.

We'll continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as storms evolve throughout the evening.

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1 day ago | [YT] | 18

Weather On da Fly

πŸš¨β›ˆοΈ WEATHER ON DA FLY: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING β›ˆοΈπŸš¨

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Mesoscale Discussion #2449 highlighting a growing threat for severe thunderstorms across portions of eastern Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky through this afternoon and early evening.

A strengthening area of low pressure is currently tracking across Illinois while colder air aloft sweeps into the region. At the same time, milder and more humid air continues streaming northward out of Missouri and Arkansas. This combination is expected to create an increasingly favorable environment for thunderstorms to strengthen as the day progresses.

🌩️ WHAT'S DRIVING THIS THREAT?

As temperatures warm this afternoon, instability will gradually increase across the Ohio Valley. Combined with strong winds aloft and cooling temperatures in the upper atmosphere, storms will have the potential to organize into clusters and discrete cells capable of producing severe weather.

Forecasters expect storm coverage and intensity to increase through the late afternoon and into the early evening hours.

⚠️ PRIMARY THREATS

🧊 LARGE HAIL The greatest threat appears to be damaging hail, with some storms capable of producing hailstones larger than 1 inch in diameter. The unusually cold air aloft will help support strong updrafts capable of generating significant hail.

πŸ’¨ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS Fast-moving storms and steepening lapse rates could allow some storms to transfer strong winds to the surface, resulting in isolated pockets of wind damage.

πŸŒͺ️ ISOLATED TORNADO RISK While not expected to be the dominant hazard, the tornado threat is not zero. Forecasters are paying close attention to southern Indiana and portions of Kentucky where richer low-level moisture and increasing wind shear may support a few rotating storms late this afternoon and early this evening.

πŸ“ AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN

β€’ Far Eastern Illinois β€’ Much of Indiana β€’ Central and Northern Kentucky

⏰ TIMING

πŸ•‘ Developing This Afternoon πŸ•” Intensifying Late Afternoon πŸ•— Continuing Into Early Evening

The Storm Prediction Center currently assigns a 40% probability that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed later today if storms continue to organize and intensify.

πŸ“’ Residents across the Ohio Valley should remain weather aware throughout the remainder of the day. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially if you live in Indiana or Kentucky where the potential for stronger storms may increase as evening approaches.

We'll continue monitoring radar trends, storm development, and any potential watch issuances throughout the afternoon.

Stay safe and stay tuned to Weather On Da Fly for the latest updates! β›ˆοΈ

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1 day ago | [YT] | 9

Weather On da Fly

πŸŒ§οΈπŸ“‘ Weather On Da Fly: Southern Louisiana & The New Orleans Metro Early Morning Radar Update | Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Good morning, Southern Louisiana!

If you're just starting your day and hearing raindrops on the roof, you're not alone. Early morning radar is showing scattered showers already affecting portions of Southern Louisiana, including the New Orleans metro area, bringing a wet start to the morning commute for many residents. While this is not a widespread heavy rain event, numerous communities are seeing periods of light to moderate rainfall as showers continue to move through the region. New Orleans/Baton Rouge Weather Forecast Office indicates slight rain chances across the area today, and there are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect.

β˜” What to Expect This Morning β€’ Intermittent showers across parts of Southern Louisiana
β€’ Wet roadways and occasional reduced visibility
β€’ Ponding of water in low-lying spots where heavier showers pass through
β€’ Varying conditions from one parish to the next, with some locations remaining mostly dry while others experience steady rainfall

πŸš— Morning Commute Impact Anyone heading out early should allow a few extra minutes to reach their destination. Remember to slow down on wet roads, increase following distance, and keep headlights on when traveling through rainfall.

🌀️ Looking Ahead While the morning is starting off on a wet note for some locations, widespread severe weather is not expected. Showers should remain fairly scattered in nature, and many areas will still experience periods of dry weather throughout the day. Temperatures will remain mild, making for a comfortable November afternoon across much of the region.

We'll continue monitoring radar trends across the region and provide updates if shower coverage expands or any stronger activity develops.

πŸ“‘ Stay weather-aware and stay tuned to Weather On Da Fly for the latest radar updates across Southern Louisiana, Southeast Louisiana, and the New Orleans Metro!

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2 days ago | [YT] | 13

Weather On da Fly

🚨 Weather On Da Fly: Day 1 Convective Outlook | November 11, 2026 🚨

⚠️ Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across portions of the Ohio Valley and Western Tennessee Valley on Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting a corridor stretching from parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and surrounding areas where a few strong to severe thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon and evening hours.

🌩️ What’s Driving the Threat?

A strengthening storm system moving through the Midwest and Ohio Valley will interact with increasing moisture and unstable air ahead of an advancing cold front. As the atmosphere becomes more energized Wednesday afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and gradually intensify.

While this is not expected to be a widespread severe weather outbreak, environmental conditions appear favorable for a few storms to briefly become severe.

⚑ Main Threats

πŸ”Ή Isolated Large Hail

πŸ”Ή Damaging Wind Gusts

πŸ”Ή A Brief Tornado Cannot Be Ruled Out

Forecasters note that moderate instability combined with 35-40 mph of wind shear may allow some storms to organize into semi-discrete cells capable of producing hail and damaging winds. A tornado threat appears limited but is possible during the late afternoon and early evening as low-level winds strengthen ahead of the approaching front.

πŸ“ Areas To Watch Closely

βœ… Southern Indiana

βœ… Central and Eastern Illinois

βœ… Kentucky

βœ… Middle Tennessee

βœ… Portions of the Ohio Valley

Storm coverage is expected to become more scattered farther south into Tennessee, but any storm that develops could still produce locally severe weather.

⏰ Timing

πŸ•’ Development Begins: Wednesday Afternoon

🌩️ Greatest Threat: Late Afternoon through Early Evening

πŸŒ™ Threat Diminishes: Wednesday Night as instability decreases behind the front

🌴 Florida Update

A separate area to watch exists across portions of Central and South Florida, where scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few stronger storms could produce:

β€’ Small Hail

β€’ Gusty Winds

β€’ Localized Heavy Rainfall

🎯 Bottom Line

Most locations across the risk area will likely experience ordinary thunderstorms or no severe weather at all. However, a few stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated severe weather, especially from the Ohio Valley into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Stay weather aware if you live within the highlighted risk area and be prepared to receive warnings should storms intensify quickly.

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2 days ago | [YT] | 22