Weather On da Fly

🌧️ Weather On Da Fly: Late Evening Tropical Update — Nolo & Polo

Two tropical systems are churning across the Pacific tonight, each posing serious threats to land, surf, and flooding potential.

🌀 Tropical Storm Nolo — Advisory #14
Nolo continues its slow west‑northwest track south of Hawaii, holding at 45 mph winds with signs of gradual strengthening. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Hawaii County as Nolo is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Thursday night.
Heavy rainfall of 15–20 inches, with isolated 35-inch totals, could trigger life‑threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Big Island. Coastal impacts include 1–3 feet of storm surge and dangerous surf building through the end of the week.

🌀 Hurricane Polo — Advisory #14
Polo remains an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane, packing 160 mph winds and a pressure of 923 mb as it moves northwest off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
While the core is expected to stay offshore, Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect from Tecpan de Galeana to Playa Perula.
Rainfall of 4–6 inches, locally 8 inches, may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, with powerful swells impacting coastal Mexico and spreading toward Baja California Sur by the weekend.

⚠️ Bottom Line:
Nolo threatens Hawaii with flooding and surf hazards, while Polo continues roaring offshore as a Category 5 powerhouse. Both systems demand close monitoring as conditions evolve.

Stay tuned — more updates coming as new advisories are issued.

#WeatherOnDaFly #Nolo #Polo #TropicalUpdate #HurricaneSeason #HawaiiWeather #MexicoWeather #FloodThreat #StormSurge #PacificTropics #StayWeatherAware 🌧️🌊🌪️

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53 minutes ago | [YT] | 3

Weather On da Fly

🌀 Weather On Da Fly: Triple Tropical Threat in the Pacific — Nolo, Polo & Odalys Update

A busy day across the Pacific as three active tropical systems continue to evolve — including one threatening Hawaii and another pounding the southwest coast of Mexico. Here’s the latest breakdown from Advisory #13 for Tropical Storm Nolo, Advisory #13 for Hurricane Polo, and Advisory #15 for Hurricane Odalys.

🔸 Tropical Storm Nolo – Advisory #13
Nolo continues its slow push toward Hawaii, now sitting near 14.5°N, 155.3°W with winds of 40 mph. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Hawaii County, and the system is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Thursday.
Major flooding concerns are increasing, with 15–20 inches of rain possible — locally up to 35 inches — along with 1–3 ft storm surge. Residents should prepare for dangerous mudslides, flash flooding, and rapidly deteriorating conditions.

🔸 Hurricane Polo – Advisory #13
Polo remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane off the southwest coast of Mexico, packing 145 mph winds near 15.7°N, 102.4°W.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, with a Tropical Storm Watch extending westward.
Heavy rain bands are already impacting coastal communities, with 4–8 inches of rainfall expected — enough to trigger flooding and mudslides. Dangerous surf and rip currents will continue along the coastline.

🔸 Hurricane Odalys – Advisory #15
Odalys is holding steady as a Category 1 hurricane far out in the open Pacific, located near 15.5°N, 127.2°W with winds of 80 mph.
No land impacts are expected, but Odalys may strengthen further before weakening later this week. Hurricane-force winds extend 35 miles, with tropical-storm-force winds reaching 125 miles from the center.

🌊 Bottom Line:
The Pacific basin remains active with multiple storms at varying stages of intensity. Nolo poses the greatest threat to land with Hawaii under a Hurricane Watch, Polo continues battering Mexico’s coastline with dangerous surf and flooding potential, and Odalys remains a remote but strengthening system.

Stay tuned for more updates as these storms evolve.

#WeatherOnDaFly #Nolo #Polo #Odalys #PacificTropics #HawaiiWeather #MexicoWeather #HurricaneSeason2026 #TropicalUpdate #StormTracking #WeatherAlert #Meteorology

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7 hours ago | [YT] | 12

Weather On da Fly

⛈️ Weather On Da Fly: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook — Wednesday, September 23, 2026

A Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms is in place today across portions of the Southern Appalachians, including eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. While widespread severe weather isn’t expected, the environment is primed for isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon.

A mid‑level low and shortwave trough sliding east across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will help spark scattered thunderstorms along a surface trough stretching from central Alabama into eastern Tennessee. With dewpoints in the mid–upper 60s, MLCAPE around 1000–1500 J/kg, and 30–40 kt of shear, a few storms may pulse strong enough to produce:

✅ Isolated damaging wind gusts
✅ Hail with the stronger updrafts

Peak heating will maximize storm intensity during the afternoon hours, with the threat diminishing after sunset as instability fades.

Stay weather‑aware if you’re in the risk zone — even a Marginal setup can still pack a punch when storms organize just right.

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#WeatherOnDaFly #SPC #Day1Outlook #SevereWeather #StormReady #WeatherUpdate #TennesseeWeather #NorthCarolinaWeather #Appalachians #Meteorology #WeatherAlert #StormTracking #WxCommunity

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20 hours ago | [YT] | 31

Weather On da Fly

🌧️ Weather On Da Fly: Potential Coastal Low Taking Shape Off the Mid‑Atlantic & Northeast 🌬️

A developing coastal low is gaining attention tonight as multiple forecast models continue to hint at a slow‑moving system forming off the Mid‑Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coast later this week. While exact track and intensity remain uncertain, confidence is increasing that this disturbance could bring gusty winds, heavy rain, rough surf, and coastal flooding from the Carolinas through New England.

Here’s what we’re watching closely:

🔹 Timing: Development likely begins late Wednesday into Thursday, with impacts lingering into the weekend.
🔹 Track: Some model runs bring the low closer to Long Island and southern New England, while others keep it offshore — a small shift will make a big difference.
🔹 Intensity: The system may deepen significantly, potentially taking on nor’easter‑like characteristics.
🔹 Hazards:
• Strong onshore winds
• Heavy rain bands
• Coastal flooding & beach erosion
• Dangerous surf and rip currents
• Cooler‑than‑normal temperatures across the Northeast

Whether this becomes a stronger coastal storm or stays a nuisance offshore will depend on how quickly it organizes and how close it tracks to the coastline. Either way, marine conditions and coastal impacts look likely.

I’ll keep you updated as new data rolls in — stay tuned for more Weather On Da Fly coverage.

#WeatherOnDaFly #Noreaster #EastCoastWeather #MidAtlantic #NortheastWeather #StormUpdate #CoastalLow #WeatherAlert #Meteorology #ForecastUpdate #BeachErosion #CoastalFlooding #WindAndWaves

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1 day ago | [YT] | 20

Weather On da Fly

👀Hurricane Polo!!!

#WeatherOnDaFly #HurricanePolo #Polo #Category5 #TropicalUpdate #MexicoWeather #StormAlert #Wx #HurricaneSeason2026 #StaySafe #FloodingRisk #CoastalHazards #Meteorology #SevereWeatherMonitoring

1 day ago | [YT] | 27

Weather On da Fly

🌀 Weather On Da Fly: Developing Cyclone Southeast of Hawaii

The remnants of former Tropical Depression 15‑E are showing signs of renewed organization this afternoon as they continue moving northwest in the Central Pacific. Environmental conditions remain favorable, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center now gives this disturbance a high chance of redevelopment over the next couple of days. If it strengthens into a tropical storm, it will gain the name Nolo.

Although the exact track is still uncertain, early indications suggest that heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and increasing surf could begin affecting the Big Island as early as Wednesday evening, with additional islands potentially seeing impacts later in the week. Some forecast models are highlighting the potential for significant rainfall totals, especially across windward and mountainous terrain where flooding could quickly become an issue.

Residents across Hawaii should stay alert, review preparedness plans, and monitor updates closely as this system evolves. Weather On Da Fly will continue providing clear, reliable updates as new advisories are issued.

#WeatherOnDaFly #DevelopingCyclone #HawaiiWeather #TropicalUpdate #15E #Nolo #CentralPacific #BigIsland #HawaiiRain #FloodRisk #TropicalStorm #Meteorology #WeatherAlert #StayPrepared

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1 day ago | [YT] | 4

Weather On da Fly

🌩️ Weather On Da Fly: Today’s SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook
A pair of Marginal Risk zones are on the board today as the atmosphere sets the stage for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. From the Intermountain West into the Southeast, ingredients are coming together for pockets of damaging winds and even some hail.

Across Utah, southwest Wyoming, and western Colorado, a strong upper‑level disturbance is moving through the region, helping storms organize enough to produce gusty winds and marginal hail. These storms will fire mainly through the afternoon and evening.

Farther east, the Southeast U.S. is dealing with a slow-moving front interacting with warm, humid air. Storms here may tap into high moisture to produce water‑loaded downdrafts, leading to localized damaging wind gusts. Coverage will be scattered, but any storm could briefly turn severe.

Even on a Marginal Risk day, conditions can still produce impactful weather — so stay alert, stay prepared, and stay tuned to Weather On Da Fly for updates throughout the day.

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#WeatherOnDaFly #SPC #Day1Outlook #SevereWeather #WeatherUpdate #StormAlert #Meteorology #WeatherForecast #Hail #DamagingWinds #Thunderstorms

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1 day ago | [YT] | 7

Weather On da Fly

🌀 Weather On Da Fly: Hurricane Polo Advisory #8 — Tue 9 AM CST
Hurricane Polo has exploded into a Category 5 powerhouse, now packing 165 mph winds as it crawls just off the southwest coast of Mexico. This is an extremely dangerous storm with a compact but violent core capable of catastrophic wind damage and life‑threatening coastal impacts.

Polo is located about 205 miles south of Zihuatanejo and drifting north at 2 mph, with a gradual turn toward the northwest and west‑northwest expected later today and Wednesday. Even if the center stays offshore, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the coastline.

⚠️ Watches & Warnings
🔸 Tropical Storm Warning: Tecpan de Galeana → Punta San Telmo
🔸 Tropical Storm Watch: West of Punta San Telmo → Playa Perula

🌧️ Hazards & Impacts
• Rainfall: 4–8 inches widespread, isolated 12"+ — flooding & mudslides possible
• Wind: Hurricane-force winds extend 35 miles from the center; TS winds out to 90 miles
• Coastal Threats: Dangerous surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding along Guerrero, Michoacán & Colima

🔎 Bottom Line:
Polo is now a Category 5 monster offshore, and while the core may remain at sea, dangerous conditions are still expected along the Mexican coastline. Residents should stay alert, follow local guidance, and monitor updates closely.

#WeatherOnDaFly #HurricanePolo #Polo #Category5 #TropicalUpdate #MexicoWeather #StormAlert #Wx #HurricaneSeason2026 #StaySafe #FloodingRisk #CoastalHazards #Meteorology #SevereWeatherMonitoring

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1 day ago | [YT] | 19

Weather On da Fly

🌀 Weather On Da Fly: Hurricane Polo — Advisory #7 (Rapid Intensification Continues)
Hurricane Polo has undergone one of the fastest intensification bursts of the 2026 season. Polo first became a tropical storm less than 48 hours ago, and since then it has rocketed from a 40 mph tropical storm to a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane, now on the doorstep of Category 5 strength. This kind of explosive strengthening is extremely rare and highlights just how favorable the environment is around Polo.

As of Advisory #7 early this morning, Polo continues to intensify south of the Mexico coastline, moving slowly and producing dangerous marine conditions and increasing rainfall threats.

📍 Location: 14.6°N, 101.8°W
➡️ Movement: East‑southeast at 6 mph
🌬️ Max Winds: 150 mph (Category 4, Cat 5 expected soon)
📉 Pressure: 935 mb
⚠️ Tropical Storm Watch: Tecpan de Galeana → Manzanillo

⛈️ Key Hazards & Forecast
• Rapid Intensification: Polo has strengthened by over 110 mph in under two days, an extremely dangerous trend that is expected to continue.
• Track: Polo will remain offshore but close to the southwestern Mexico coastline through midweek.
• Rainfall: 4–8 inches, isolated 12 inches possible across Guerrero and Michoacán.
• Flooding & Mudslides: Heavy rainfall over mountainous terrain may lead to life‑threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
• Coastal Impacts: Large swells, dangerous surf, and rip currents spreading along the coast.
• Wind Threat: Tropical storm conditions possible in the watch area by early Wednesday.

Even if Polo stays offshore, its extreme intensity and slow movement mean prolonged hazards for southwestern Mexico. Communities should stay alert and monitor updates closely.

#WeatherOnDaFly #HurricanePolo #Polo #TropicalUpdate #RapidIntensification #Category5Potential #MexicoWeather #StormTracking #NHC #SevereWeather #TropicalCyclone #Wx

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1 day ago | [YT] | 31

Weather On da Fly

🌀 Weather On Da Fly: Hurricane Polo Rapidly Intensifies — Now a Major Category 4

Hurricane Polo has exploded in strength tonight, now packing 130 mph winds as a powerful Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. The storm continues to rapidly intensify and could reach Category 5 strength later today or Wednesday as it moves slowly near the southwestern Mexico coastline.

Polo is currently located 330 miles SSE of Manzanillo and 210 miles south of Zihuatanejo, drifting east‑southeast at just 5 mph. While the core is expected to remain offshore, its close proximity to land means heavy rainfall, dangerous surf, and tropical‑storm‑force winds may impact portions of Guerrero and Michoacán through midweek.

Key Hazards to Watch:
• Rainfall: 4–8 inches with isolated 12" totals — flash flooding & mudslides possible
• Wind: Tropical storm conditions possible within the watch area
• Surf: Large swells and hazardous rip currents along the coast
• Intensity: Continued strengthening expected — potentially catastrophic if it reaches Cat 5

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo. Residents along the southwestern Mexico coast should stay alert and monitor updates closely as Polo intensifies.

Stay tuned — I’ll keep you updated as new advisories come in.

#WeatherOnDaFly #HurricanePolo #Polo #EasternPacific #TropicalWeather #MexicoWeather #HurricaneSeason2026 #StormUpdate #FloodingRisk #RapidIntensification #StaySafe

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1 day ago | [YT] | 6