Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/LsJUFTbO3KA

The Shiller PE Ratio is one of the most reliable long-run valuation gauges for U.S. equities, and right now it is flashing a number worth pausing on.

This chart plots the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 across roughly 140 years of market history. The ratio smooths earnings over a 10-year window to reduce short-term noise, giving a cleaner read on whether the market is cheap or expensive relative to its own history.

Two peaks stand out clearly: the spike around 1929, which reached roughly 30, and the dot-com era peak near 2000, which pushed above 44. Both preceded significant multi-year drawdowns.

The current reading, marked on the right edge of the chart at 40.52, sits just below that 2000 extreme. It is the second-highest valuation level in the entire dataset.

With the video title referencing 17 years without a real crash, the implication is straightforward: stretched valuations do not guarantee an imminent correction, but history suggests the margin for error at these levels is narrow.

#SP500 #SPX #StockMarket #Macro #Investing #Valuation

5 hours ago | [YT] | 2

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

Just because two assets move in the same direction on one day does not mean they are truly correlated. Real correlation shows up consistently, across time and in similar size moves, not just the same direction on a random Tuesday. Use things like currency strength as one clue about market conditions, not a crystal ball. Always look at the bigger picture before drawing conclusions.

6 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/LsJUFTbO3KA

When a ratio stretches too far from its mean, that gap tends to close; this z-score chart makes that tendency tradeable.

The chart plots how many standard deviations an oil-related ratio currently sits above or below its own long-run average. Zero is the mean; the red dashed lines mark the outer bands where the strategy triggers. Beyond those thresholds, the setup calls for a bet on the gap closing back toward green. The annotation on the chart spells out the logic plainly: above the upper band, the ratio is expensive and a short position is favoured; below the lower band, it is cheap and a long position is favoured. The position exits when the ratio returns to green.

What stands out is how rarely the ratio sustains a reading beyond the outer bands for long. The bulk of the price history clusters between plus and minus 2, with only brief, sharp excursions beyond. That mean-reversion behaviour is the entire foundation of the strategy, and the chart suggests it has held across a multi-year sample.

#CrudeOil #WTI #Commodities #Macro #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #Investing

14 hours ago | [YT] | 1

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/LsJUFTbO3KA

When you price the S&P 500 against money supply, the picture looks very different from nominal all-time highs.

This chart plots the SPX/USM2 ratio, scaling the index by the quantity of money in circulation. The effect strips out the portion of equity gains that simply reflect monetary expansion, leaving a view of real purchasing-power performance.

The circled peak near the 3.20 level stands out clearly: that is where the ratio topped before a sharp, sustained decline toward the 0.84 area. The current reading sits near 1.94, roughly in line with the long-run horizontal reference line drawn across the chart.

The shaded region on the left highlights the prior cycle low and the base from which the ratio recovered, providing context for how far conditions have traveled in both directions.

For investors focused on whether equity valuations are genuinely advancing or simply floating on liquidity, this ratio is a disciplined lens worth watching closely.

#SP500 #SPX #Macro #Investing

22 hours ago | [YT] | 4

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: the-bitcoin-strategy.com/r/3RhB70ya

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22 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

Will $BTC end 2026 above $200k?

23 hours ago | [YT] | 3

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/sDrXg9U7ZiU

Solana outperformed Bitcoin by 13%. One fund did it.

→ Price up 13%. Actual usage went the opposite direction.
→ Almost all of that money came from one fund


#SolanaAnalysis #BitcoinCycles #CryptoMacro #Bitcoin

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23 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/1cAfnXp9AHM

A backtest that separates strategy alpha from simple asset appreciation is one of the most honest charts a trader can share.

This chart compares two equity curves from December 2025 through September 2026. The green line represents total equity, ending at $5,018,204. The orange line represents a funding-only backtest, ending at $3,882,492. Both start near the $3,000,000 baseline.

The orange curve is the key reference point. It rises slowly and steadily across the entire period, reflecting accumulated funding fees alone, with very little volatility. The green total equity line moves far more aggressively, peaking near $6,500,000 around early May before correcting and recovering again by late August.

The orange dots scattered along the green line appear to mark specific trade entries or rebalance events across the strategy.

The spread between the two lines, roughly $1.1 million at the final reading, represents the contribution of the long/short perpetual futures positioning on top of funding fee collection. The funding-only baseline growing from $3,000,000 to $3,882,492 reflects approximately 29% in fees captured over the period, independent of directional market exposure.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Investing #Ethena #ENA #Macro #Cryptocurrency

1 day ago | [YT] | 1

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

Support and resistance are zones, not exact prices. Give yourself a small buffer around a level, because a one-tick break means almost nothing. A moving average line helps too: when price closes and stays on one side, that tells you the trend more clearly than any gut feeling.

1 day ago | [YT] | 1

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/1cAfnXp9AHM

ENA's relative performance against the broader altcoin market tells a more nuanced story than the USD price alone.

This chart plots Ethena's performance ratio against the wider altcoin market, scaled by a factor of 10,000,000,000 for readability. Rather than showing ENA in dollar terms, it reveals whether ENA is gaining or losing ground relative to its peers over time.

The chart sits within a clearly defined descending channel, with price currently near the lower boundary. The significant drawdown visible mid-chart aligns with the period when USDE usage contracted sharply, triggering meaningful relative underperformance.

What stands out now is the positioning. With price near channel lows, the creator estimates roughly 62% of potential relative upside remains if ENA simply mean-reverts toward the upper boundary of this channel, without breaking the downtrend.

The caveat is supply. Token inflation is a structural headwind, with roughly 36% additional supply entering circulation over the next year. That dilution pressure is a core reason the relative underperformance occurred in the first place, and it remains a live risk for any recovery thesis.

#Ethena #ENA #Altcoin #Crypto #AltcoinAnalysis #Cryptocurrency #Investing

1 day ago | [YT] | 5